DemandSideSolutions

energy issues in the built environment

Wow.

From Free Exchange:

JUST inland of Macau and Hong Kong, the Pearl River delta explodes into a sprawling mass of urbanity that includes some of China’s largest and most productive cities. The Chinese government is busily knitting all of these cities together into one grand megapolitan area, home to nearly 50m people and stretching over 100 miles across at the widest part. It’s like trying to tie the Philadelphia and New York metro areas together—if there were a couple more Philly-sized metros in between the two.

About infrastructure investments generally, worth a read.

Systemic Impacts of High Performance Homes

I hear a lot people saying things like, “banks should offer lower rates on higher performance homes because they are reduce credit risk due to higher value and lower operating cost” or “high performance homes should carry a lower insurance premium due to reduced risk of failure”. I have always been skeptical of these claims but it appears the Institute for Market Transformation (not an unbiased organization) and the UNC (should be an unbiased organization) have put some numbers to the first statement above. I like this take from Matt Yglesias:

Emily Badger has a fascinating piece about new research indicating that energy efficient Energy Star homes are less likely to enter default and foreclosure than conventional homes. When I first saw this study being touted by some green types on Twitter I thought the finding was based on some obvious fallacy, but Badger writes that the researchers “controlled for the size and age of the houses, neighborhood income, climate, home value, local unemployment rates, utility prices and borrower credit scores, among other variables.”

In other words, this really is a correlation between energy efficiency and default risk not just something about energy efficient homes being built in more economically vibrant places.

One possibility here is that energy efficiency is saving people tons of money, and thus they can pay off their mortgage. Another possibility would be that efficiency is a correlate of some kind of anti-default personality characteristic—like the kind of people who remember to consider the energy efficiency of their house are more far-sighted than average. Either way, the thinking here is that the energy efficiency of a home should enter into assessments of creditworthiness for mortgage purposes.

Falling Down As Things are Picking Up

From ENR:

During much of the recovery margins will remain low because aggressive bidding continues until the appetite of construction organizations has been satisfied.

The research also confirms that the failure rate of construction enterprises is three times worse during recovery than during the downturn.

Emphasis mine.

Big Questions

Hypotheses that Matthew Kahn is working:

Idea #1:  Building quality and energy consumption are complements and new buildings are consuming more energy over time.  This contrasts with the case of vehicle emissions where new capital is cleaner than older capital (see Kahn and Schwartz 2008) and Costa and Kahn for residential housing progress.

Idea #2:  Buildings with Full Service Lease tenants consume more electricity.  These tenants face a zero marginal cost for electricity and the law of demand holds!

Idea #3:  Buildings with a building manager on site consume less electricity.  Human capital conserves on natural capital!

Idea #4;  Buildings with more government tenants consume more power.  Beware soft budget constraints!

Idea #5:  The Rebound Effect Lurks —- On hot days, newer buildings consume more power!   We conjecture that while such buildings have a newer HVAC system that since the price per unit of comfort is lower in such efficient buildings, such buildings’ tenants respond by setting the thermostat lower and thus “rebounding”.

It will be interesting to see what this study is able to conclude with their self-described “funky” data set. The last one, related to the rebound effect, has lingered for decades, so I’d be surprised if he will be able to answer it with a large degree of confidence. Mr. Kahn has published previous studies that focused on the California market (e.g., solar home price premium) and are therefore not necessarily generalizable. Hopefully the data set for this work more broad.

NYC Disclosure Update

From the NYT:

In courting tenants over the last six years, 7 World Trade Center has trumpeted its gold LEED rating, an emblem of sound environmental citizenship. But when it comes to energy efficiency, the young 52-story tower is far from a top performer, according to data released under a city law that tracks energy use in New York buildings. It had a score of 74 — just below the minimum of 75 set for high-efficiency buildings by the federal Environmental Protection Agency’s Energy Star program.

On the other hand, two venerated show horses from the 1930s, the Chrysler Building and the Empire State Building, sailed to an 84 and an 80 as a result of extensive upgrades of their insulation and mechanical systems.

And the MetLife Building, a 1963 hulk looming over Grand Central Terminal? It scored 39. Still, solace is at hand for MetLife’s owners: the Seagram Building, Mies van der Rohe’s bronze-toned 1958 masterpiece on Park Avenue, posted a 3.

Update from the Crazy Headline “Rapid Building” Dept.

I posted a while back on this rapid building project.

Here is another:

In just 48 hours, workers assembled the prefabricated structural-steel subassemblies and other components—without any interior finishes—of a 10-story building in the industrial town of Mohali in northwestern India. The still-unfinished building holds the nation’s speed record for superstructure-plus assembly.

On Dec. 1, the deputy chief minister of the state of Punjab, Sukhbir Singh Badal, inaugurated the 25,000-sq-meter building. For two days, a 200-member team worked around the clock to finish erecting the subassemblies and exterior wall panels. Less than 20% of the work was done on-site, according to the company. The builder claims the structure, designed to resist earthquakes, has a 600-year life.

There is a video.

I would love to see this and the project in Changsa in 600 years. For some reason I suspect they’re not quite that durable…

Let’s look at these in one, two, five or ten years and inspect them for durability. Let’s analyse their long-term performance compared to capital and operating costs. Let’s do this in near-term metrics (e.g., rent, utility costs) as well as long-term metrics (e.g., durability, utility costs).

Pre-fab building technologies get a lot of press and there is some hope that these types of systems will deliver long lasting performance. Looking forward we should expect new systems to challenge incumbents. That said, it is important to note that there is a reason we build today the way we do. There is a reason manufactured systems are not currently the predominant building strategy in the US (or anywhere, really). In a disparate industry of excavators, masons, carpenters, insulators, roofers, HVAC contractors, etc…, centralization of construction is a challenging value proposition.

The value of near-term product delivery, via integrated construction systems, will inevitably prove itself over time.

Only in Texas

This really shouldn’t come as a surprise, but it did:

MainStreet America, a multi-million dollar home shopping venue set on a 14-acre site, will open Nov. 24 in Houston.

Rehabilitation: Residential Towers

Good work being done in Toronto:

When complete, Prof. Kesik estimates the combined annual $330,000 natural gas bill will decrease by 40 to 50 per cent. Better yet, the 40-year-old buildings’ lives will extended into the 2060s: “For sure we’ve got two generations that are going to live in this place and they’re going to be okay – that’s a remarkable story!” That’s because older buildings, he adds, are already so “tough, rugged and robust” they handle the recladding process with ease; in fact, residents of Grenadier Gardens have not been asked to move out during construction.

This is a story about durability as much as it is about energy, if not more. I particularly like this opening comment:

“As a building scientist, I look at buildings the way a doctor looks at a body: I say ‘Ah, it may look sexy but boy, that’s not very healthy. I don’t know if I’d want to be that thin.”

That’s in response to new, all glass residential towers (a topic I’ve touched on here and here recently).

The article references this interesting resource, Tower Renewal Guidelines. It’s worth checking out and has some good details (also a lot of fluff). A significant challenge in re-cladding existing residential towers surrounds balcony details. It’s important to remember that balconies are huge heat exchangers (here is a famous example) and there really isn’t a practical way to thermally break them in a retrofit scenario. In new buildings there are details for dealing with this issue (also recommend this book).

Supply Side Update

Forecast:

The United States will overtake Saudi Arabia as the world’s leading oil producer by about 2017 and will become a net oil exporter by 2030, the International Energy Agency said Monday.

Of course, I’m not much for forecasts and tend to agree, as usual, with Smil’s writing on this. Nevertheless, when you think this through it has some interesting implications both domestically and for the world.

The Case for Simplicity

I was impressed by Henry Gifford’s presentation at the BSC Summer Camp this past summer (yes, the Henry Gifford who sued the USGBC). In it he lays out simple strategies for ensuring happy occupants (comfortable with their own thermal control) via low-maintenance HVAC systems that are energy efficient. He measures energy. He tracks energy use. It makes sense. He led the following chant to a room full of adoring building scientists: give me some H (H!), give me some V (V!), and give me some AC (AC!) – but don’t do HVAC to me! His point was that heating, ventilation and air-conditioning should be decoupled (context: Mr. Gifford owns multi-unit residential buildings in NYC). Integrated systems can lead to unnecessary complication, can be difficult to commission and therefore don’t work as intended and are rarely maintained as they should. Simpler systems work better because, well, they’re simple and can deliver results.

Shortly after meeting Mr. Gifford I met Jeffrey Inhnen of Michaels Energy. He presented at the ACEEE Summer Study where he also made the case for simpler HVAC systems. This is from his white paper:

Central air handling systems have evolved over a century starting when energy was very inexpensive.  As energy costs have risen, the central system has been modified into an overly complex variable air volume system that almost always permits excessive simultaneous heating and cooling, and fan and pumping energy.  In fact, in some applications “excessive” simultaneous heating and cooling cannot be avoided.

Wasted energy from simultaneous heating and cooling, pumping, and fan energy have been witnessed at many facilities investigated by Michaels Energy.  These include facilities that were built through the process of new construction programs and LEED®; facilities that use substantially more than median energy consumption reported by Building Energy Consumption Survey 2003.  Why?  Not because their energy models and design intents aren’t good necessarily, but because the systems are overly complex, poorly understood by key stakeholders, and rarely commissioned with functional testing of systems to ensure design intent integrity.
One way to avoid this inherent propensity for waste is to use dedicated outdoor air systems that decouple ventilation heating and cooling from zone heating and cooling needs.  This avoids the vast majority of potential simultaneous heating and cooling.  Compared to conventional HVAC (variable air volume) systems, these systems:
  • Are no more complicated to design.
  • Can be cost competitive with less ductwork, no variable air volume boxes, smaller fans, and less complex controls.
  • Provide better comfort for occupants.
  • Save energy and have a lower life cycle cost for owners presenting a competitive edge for contractors. (needs further study)
The 2012-13 ASHRAE President highlighted similar sentiments in his inaugural address:
When it comes to technology, we need to keep the users in mind. We need to keep it simple. Do we really need those latest technologies in all cases? Do we need more complicated buildings?
These are compelling arguments. Bottom line: keep it simple out there!